Plus, some notes on how to critically evaluate on-chain data

You might have seen a lot of bullish on-chain tweets coming out over the last week. For example, the amount of HODLed or Lost Coins has been increasing again, or Miners’ Outflow Volume (7d MA) reached a 5-month low of $1,725,244.14 on June 16 2021.

Overall it looks like “smart” money is accumulating. So why in the meantime, Bitcoin is on track to have the worst second quarter over the last 8 years?

I increasingly see people wonder why price does not follow this bullish on-chain news…

In my last article from May, 23 I explained why Bitcoin’s price might be in for some more short-term pain. As some time has passed since then, I would like to give a brief update on that. As of the time of writing Bitcoin’s price stands at roughly $39.000. That’s higher than on May, 23 where Bitcoin’s price closed at $34.978 according to Coingecko data. With the Bitcoin 2021 Conference starting tomorrow in Miami and the price recovery the sentiment still seems to be divided as per the Twitter poll from Nik Patel today.

It looks like people are not…

Why Bitcoin’s price might be in for some more short-term pain

In this article, I will not comment on the medium to long-term outlook of Bitcoin, which is to my mind still bullish, as e.g. Will Clemente shows in his most recent The Pomp Letter. Instead, I will look at some of the exchange dynamics and why it is too early to speak about a declining trend with regard to the supply shortage on exchanges again, and why Bitcoin’s price might be in for more short-term pain.

After rising substantially in the last weeks, Bitcoin balances on exchanges have been declining on Thursday and Friday (see Graph 1). In a tweet…

A brief outlook at the current state of the market

“Why isn’t Bitcoin’s price going up?”, that’s a question I have read more often recently on Twitter. Particularly in replies to tweets of the Whale Bot Alerts showing substantial outflows from exchanges. The tweet by Elon Musk announcing that Tesla is not accepting Bitcoin for payments anymore, combined with the announcement that Binance is under investigation in the US on May 13, has been tanking bitcoin’s price at times below $48k in the last days. While bitcoin might correct even lower, particularly if there should be more FUD coming out in the coming days/weeks, the general sentiment has been bullish…

250 days into the third cycle

On December 20, 2020, I published the article Halving Cycles and the Bitcoin Price. At that point, Bitcoin has been 223 days into its third halving cycle (December 19, 2020). We are now 250 days into the third cycle (January 15, 2020). Since then, a lot has happened, and I would like to update you briefly on where Bitcoin stands now.

Graph 1: Percentage change in bitcoin price since the halving event. All three cycles. 223 days into the cycle (halving day included) (Datasource:

After 223 days it was already visible that the current cycle has been pulling away from the second halving cycle. However, that trend has not been as clear as it is now. With bitcoins price rising from $23.844,00 on…

A “Mildly” Bullish Outlook on Bitcoin during the 3rd Halving Cycle

The bitcoin halving events are an essential feature of bitcoin. Every 210.000 blocks the block reward for miners is cut in half. The halving of the block rewards happens roughly every four years. Each of these events is a negative supply shock to bitcoin. With that in mind halving cycles are a significant factor in bitcoins market cycles and people expect prices to increase after each halving. The effects of these negative supply shocks have achieved a lot of attention in recent years. Particularly with the release of the bitcoin stock-to-flow model by PlanB on March 2020, 2019. Historically the…

A GoogleTrends Analysis for the United States

The corona crisis has dramatically changed the world we live in. It has led to drastic changes in our personal lives and the economy. Bitcoin should be designed to thrive in these uncertain times and one would expect interest in bitcoin to rise. In this article, I am looking at how the corona crisis has influenced bitcoin attention using GoogleTrends data. The focus is on Google search data for the US using daily data from 01/01/2020 to 31/08/2020 (for a detailed data description see Appendix).

Before getting into the more detailed analysis let us first have a look at how…

Jan Wuestenfeld

Bitcoin Enthusiast, Bitcoin Research, Data Analysis, Twitter: @JanWues

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